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Djokovic, Murray, Hewitt move on in MelbourneTennis Betting Lines01/19/2012 - Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Last year's champion Novak Djokovic and runner-up Andy Murray were among Thursday's second-round winners, as was home favorite Lleyton Hewitt, who beat an injured Andy Roddick at the Australian Open. The world No. 1 Djokovic rolled past Colombia's Santiago Giraldo 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, as the super Serb had to overcome an early service break on Day 4. "I maybe started a little too defensive because he was hitting the ball very strong," Djokovic said. "But then after, it was the other way around." The reigning Aussie Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open titlist has now won 34 of his last 36 Grand Slam matches and is seeking a third straight major title and a third Aussie crown. A title here would put Djokovic in select company, as only four players -- Rod Laver, Pete Sampras, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal -- have captured three straight Grand Slam championships. Djokovic will meet big-serving Frenchman Nicolas Mahut in the third round on Saturday at Melbourne Park. The fourth-seeded Murray, meanwhile, defeated France's Edouard Roger-Vasselin 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 in just under two hours at Hisense Arena. Murray, who appeared in the last two finals here, including a loss to Djokovic a year ago, is playing his first major event with the legendary Ivan Lendl as his coach. "It's been good, he's obviously one of the greatest players ever," Murray said. "He's got so much experience and he's a very funny guy. You wouldn't probably expect it by the way he was on the court, similar to myself." The three-time Grand Slam runner-up Murray will tangle with French left-hander Michael Llodra in his next match. In the most-anticipated match of the day, the unseeded former No. 1 Hewitt topped a 15th-seeded former top-ranked Roddick 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, as the American retired because of a right hamstring injury. Roddick summoned the doctor and a trainer after the third set. He fell to the court in the opening set, but played on despite being in obvious pain. "It's a miserable, terrible thing being out there compromised like that," said Roddick, who is a four-time Aussie semifinalist. "I wanted to see what I could do. You don't really have much time for clarity in that situation. He's a tough guy to play -- he knew what was going on." Hewitt said the injury situation was "a nightmare for both of us." "Obviously he stretched something," Hewitt said. "It's not easy for the person up the other end of the court. It's hard to concentrate when they're having injury timeouts. "Andy's a great competitor -- he's similar to me. He plays with his heart on his sleeve, has that never-say-die attitude as well. It's never easy to play injured or to pull out of a match. It's not a good feeling." Hewitt and Roddick have now split 14 career matchups. Hewitt also beat his fellow former U.S. Open champ in the 2005 Aussie semis. The two-time major champion and '05 Aussie runner-up Hewitt will face rising 23rd-seeded Canadian Milos Raonic here on Saturday. Raonic, who titled in India two weeks ago, downed Germany's Philipp Petzschner 6-4, 5-7, 6-2, 7-5 on Day 4 of this fortnight. Fifth-seeded David Ferrer, meanwhile, struggled to get past American Ryan Sweeting, who actually held a two-sets-to-one lead before the Spaniard righted the ship en route to a 6-7 (4-7), 6-2, 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 decision. Sweeting recorded nine double faults and piled up 73 unforced errors in the setback. Up next for Ferrer will be Argentine veteran Juan Ignacio Chela. Also on Thursday, France's Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, the tournament's sixth seed, defeated Ricardo Mello of Brazil 7-5, 6-4, 6-4 and ninth-seeded Serb Janko Tipsarevic overcame Aussie James Duckworth 3-6, 6-2, 7-6 (7-5), 6-4. Tsonga will play Portuguese Frederico Gil, while Tipsarevic will face sweet- swinging Frenchman Richard Gasquet in the round of 32 this weekend. In some action involving a trio of French seeds, Julien Benneteau upset his 12th-seeded countryman Gilles Simon 7-5, 7-6 (10-8), 1-6, 3-6, 6-2, No. 14 Gael Monfils came back to beat capable Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci 2-6, 6-0, 6-4, 6-2, and a No. 17 Gasquet handled Kazakhstan's Andrey Golubev 6-4, 6-2, 3-0, as Golubev retired in the third set. In other second-round action involving seeds, Kazakhstan's Mikhail Kukushkin outlasted No. 19 Serb Viktor Troicki 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3; Japan's best, No. 24 Kei Nishikori, snuck past Aussie Matthew Ebden 3-6, 1-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-1; Gil grounded No. 26 Spaniard Marcel Granollers 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3; a No. 27 Chela eased past Spaniard Pablo Andujar 6-4, 6-4, 6-3; and Llodra outlasted No. 32 Russian Alex Bogomolov Jr. 6-1, 6-3, 4-6, 5-7, 6-4. One other Thursday result saw Mahut defeat Japan's Tatsuma Ito 1-6, 7-6 (8-6), 6-2, 6-2. The third round will get underway on Friday, including matches for a pair of all-time greats -- the former world No. 1s Nadal and Federer. The second- seeded Nadal will take on Slovak Lukas Lacko, while the third-seeded Federer will meet massive-serving 6-foot-10 Croat Ivo Karlovic. Nadal is the reigning French Open champion and owns 10 Grand Slam titles, including an Aussie Open one in 2009 when he beat Federer here in the final. Federer is a record 16-time men's major titlist, including four championships in Melbourne. Also on Day 5, seventh-seeded former Wimbledon runner-up Tomas Berdych will face 30th-seeded Kevin Anderson, 10th-seeded Nicolas Almagro will battle 21st- seeded Swiss Stan Wawrinka and 11th-seeded former U.S. Open champ Juan Martin del Potro will be opposed by Taipei's Yen-Hsun Lu. Two other quality matchups will pit 13th-seeded 2011 Aussie Open quarterfinalist Alexandr Dolgopolov against rising Aussie teen and 2011 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic and 16th-seeded 6-foot-9 American slugger John Isner versus 18th-seeded Feliciano Lopez.
<< Djokovic, Murray, Ferrer advance at Aussie Open
Melbourne, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Last year's champ Novak Djokovic and runner-up Andy Murray, as well as fifth-seeded Spaniard David Ferrer, were each winners on Thursday, advancing to the third round of the Australian Open. Djokovic
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No shortage of storylines for this Super Bowl >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sibling rivalries have always made for great tales. Think Cain versus Abel. Romulus and Remus. Marcia and Jan. So the prospect of brotherly warfare as the backdrop for Super Bowl XLVI should bring some add
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MySportsbook.com and Kentucky Derby Offer Bonuses Well, not quite $1 million, but MySportsbook.com is offering a 75% rebate for Kentucky Derby lines. Check out the exclusive horse racing bonus for all the details. According to MySportsbook.com, the favorites for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky are: Curlin (+250); Street Sense (+500); Scat Daddy (+700); Circular Quay (+750); and Nobiz Like Shobiz (+800). Derby organizers announced this week that there will be a $1-million bonus at the 2007 Kentucky Derby odds if the first-place horse wins by more than 6 1/2 lengths – the margin of Barbaro's victory last year. The bonus would be divided Saturday among the winning trainer, jockey, owner and a charity, with each receiving 25 percent. The designated charity is the Barbaro Memorial Fund. ''It's certainly creative, it's certainly fun and it has something for the horsemen, which we always want to embrace,'' Churchill Downs president and chief executive Robert Evans said at a news conference. ''What's really cool is it will force us to remember Barbaro.'' Arkansas Derby winner Curlin – unbeaten in three career races – tries to overcome both those obstacles in Saturday's 133rd Derby. ''We're not running against history,'' trainer Steve Asmussen said Monday. ''We're running against who they load up.'' Six other horses have run in the Derby without benefit of 2-year-old races and with three or fewer starts. The best any of them managed was a sixth-place finish by Showing Up last year. ”He exudes confidence and he's got a great presence about him,'' the trainer said. ''I feel great about the position we're in. He's not worried about anything, why should you be?'' For complete odds on the Kentucky Derby, visit MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
How to bet pro footballThere is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB. These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon. Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality. Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on. Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain. Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top. The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap? To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense. Home vs. Away Teams Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player. Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week. Price ranges Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time. The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons. Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1. Playoff teams It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time. Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them. This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999. Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games. Scoring defense and scoring offense Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1. Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period. There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1. The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail. Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road. Scoring margin An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team. In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season. Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers. In sum Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap. The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits. To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs. |
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